How accurate is the AI on the Champions League?

UEFA Champions League 2026-27 · live scorecard

The date under each matchday is when its calls were last set. A call can be updated until its match kicks off, then it locks and never changes. Matchday 3 was played without the AI's calls, so its matches are shown but not scored. They are never filled in afterwards: a forecast written after full-time is not a prediction.

What this record does and does not prove

The Champions League AI only calls a match once the bookmakers have priced it. Before each matchday it calls, every club's rating is solved from the market's win, draw and win prices for that matchday, so the AI's probabilities sit close to the market's, and so do its calls, apart from the draw rule below.

So a 70% hit rate mostly tells you how often the market's favourites won this season. It is a real, public record of calls locked before kick-off. It is not evidence that the AI beats the bookmakers, and we do not claim it does.

Calibration · were the probabilities honest?

Accuracy only asks whether the call was right. Calibration asks the harder question: when the AI said 60%, did it happen about 60% of the time? Below is every probability it published for the 54 graded matches, three per match (home, draw, away), sorted into bands and scored against the result.

The Brier score is the standard measure of forecast quality. Lower is better, and 0.222 is what you would score by ignoring the match and always guessing the base rate. The average gap is how far, across the bands, what the AI said sat from what happened, in percentage points.

Honest limits: this is one season so far, and the thinner bands hold only a few forecasts, so read those rows loosely. The probabilities are the ones the AI stored before kick-off, unrounded.

How the Champions League AI works

Each club's Elo-style rating is solved from the bookmakers' prices for its next match. A goals model then turns the gap between the two clubs, plus home advantage, into win, draw and win probabilities, with a correction that stops it under-pricing draws. The AI backs the favourite unless the draw sits within a set margin of it, in which case it calls the draw. It has called 4 draws in the Champions League this season, and none has landed. Each call can be updated until its match kicks off. From then it is locked and never changed.

The goals model is explained step by step on how the AI works. This record is scored on its own: the Premier League and World Cup record and the NFL record are separate pages, and the three are never added together.

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